GROWTH AND INNOVATION POLICY-MODELLING

APPLYING NEXT GENERATION TOOLS, DATA, AND ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY IDEAS

Mission

GROWTHCOM is a Scientific Project Financed in the Information and Communication Technology program of the European Commission (Call FP7-ICT-2013-10, Objectives 2013.5.4). In the wake of the financial crisis one of the major challenges faced by policymakers in Europe and around the world is re-kindling economic growth and innovation. Recent research portrays economic growth as a process of evolution of ecosystems of technologies and industrial capabilities. This research has also shown a strong relationship between the development of the complexity of economies in a globalized market and overall output growth. ICT based tools, in particular complex systems analysis, simulation, systems science methods, and big data capabilities offer policymakers new opportunities to empirically map technology and capability ecosystems of countries and industrial sectors, analyse their structure, understand their dynamics, measure economic complexity, and design policy interventions more likely to have positive impacts on growth over time. This project proposes to apply ICT tools in this way to yield insights on the industrial competitiveness and fragility of countries, the evolution of technologies and capabilities, the network of products, the adaptability of companies, and the ecology of E-commerce. In particular, E-commerce provides an important example of the active involvement of citizen in terms of their feedbacks on products and companies. The project will be a European and global collaboration amongst a network of researchers highly experienced in these topics. The teams involved represent an interdisciplinary consortium in which various research lines will be integrated in a network of collaborative effort to address challenging problems for a new vision of a data driven fundamental economics in a strongly connected, globalised world. The results of the project will provide a novel basis for economic forecasting and risk analysis for countries, companies and technological sectors, and they will also provide a new perspective for growth and innovation policymaking. 

Grant agreement no: 611272
Keywords: Economic Complexity; Big Data; Bipartite Network; New Metrics; Measuring intangibles; Non monetary variables; Industrial competitiveness; Technological evolution; Evolvability; E-commerce ecology
Callhttp://ec.europa.eu/research/participants/portal/desktop/en/opportunities/fp7/calls/fp7-ict-2013-10.html

Recent news

  • Closing International Conference of Project GROWTHCOM
    2016-09-20

    "Social and Economic Change as a Complex Dynamical System 2016"
    Satellite Meeting of CCS16,
    September 20th 2016,
    Beurs Van Berlage, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    For further informations:
    https://sites.google.com/site/seccds2016/

  • Invited Talk by Matúš Medo "Network metrics for reputation and quality in scholarly data"
    2016-03-10

    The ever-increasing quantity and complexity of scientific production have made it difficult for researchers to keep track of advances in their own fields. This, together with growing popularity of online scientific communities, calls for the development of effective information filtering tools. Network theory is an important driving aspect for such algorithms. We will first discuss the case of an online scientific community where users and papers form a bipartite network which can be effectively used to evaluate the reputation of users and fitness of papers. We show that when the input data is extended to a multilayer network including users, papers and authors, the resulting performance improves on multiple levels. In particular, top papers have higher citation count and top authors have higher h-index than top papers and top authors chosen by other algorithms. We will then move to stress the role of time in scholarly data. Most research metrics either ignore time (such as the h index) or consider it in an ad-hoc fashion (such as... Read more

  • 6th Internal Meeting of the GROWTHCOM Project
    2016-04-18
  • 5th Internal Meeting of the GROWTHCOM Project
    2015-09-12
  • 4th Internal Meeting of the GROWTHCOM Project
    2015-03-12
  • Invited Talk by Matthieu Cristelli Social Change at a Complex Dynamical System
    2015-12-10
  • TALK by Matthieu Cristelli at ICCSS15 Conference
    2015-06-08
  • Talk by Matthieu Cristelli at YSI INET Conference
    2015-04-11
  • Talk and live game exhibition by T. Fink, Kreyon Day, Palaexpo, Rome
    2015-09-13

    "Collective creativity and disruptive innovation"  (demo and talk)

  • Talk by T. Fink, Kreyon Meeting, La Sapienza, Rome
    2015-09-14

    "Simple designs drive rapid innovation"

  • Seminar by Andrea Gabrielli at the GROWTHCOM Project Summer School "Socio-Economic Complex Systems"
    2015-09-07

    Title: "Scientific Complexity & Competitiveness of Nations"

     

    Abstract

     

    We will use citation data of scientific articles produced by nations in different scientific domains to determine the structure and efficiency of national research systems. Within a framework inspired by Economic Complexity, we will characterize the scientific fitness of each nation (i.e., the competitiveness of its research system) and the complexity of each scientific domain by means of a non-linear iterative algorithm able to assess quantitatively the advantage of scientific diversification. We will find that technological leading nations, beyond having the largest production of scientific papers and the largest number of citations, do not specialize in a few scientific domains. Rather, they diversify as much as possible their research system. On the other side, less developed nations are competitive only in scientific domains where also many other nations are present.... Read more

  • Talk by Andrea Gabrielli at Conference "IWcee15 - International Workshop on Computational Economics and Econometrics"
    2015-05-28

    Title: "The Scientic Competitiveness of Nations"

  • Talk by Andrea Gabrielli at Conference "IC2S2 - International Conference on Computational Social Science 2015"
    2015-06-10

    Title:  "Systemic risk analysis in reconstructed economic and nancial networks"

  • Talk by Andrea Gabrielli at Conference "FISMAT 2015"
    2015-09-29

    Title: "Estimating topological properties of weighted networks from limited information: applications to socio-economic field"

     

    Abstract

     

    A problem typically encountered when studying complex systems is the limitedness of the information available on their topology, which hinders our understanding of their structure and of the dynamical processes taking place on them. A paramount example is provided by financial networks, whose data are privacy-protected: banks publicly disclose only their aggregate exposure towards other banks, keeping individual exposures towards each single bank secret. Yet, the estimation of systemic risk strongly depends on the detailed structure of the interbank network. The resulting challenge is that of using aggregate information to statistically reconstruct a network and correctly predict its higher-order properties. Standard approaches either generate unrealistically dense networks, or fail to reproduce the observed topology... Read more

  • Talk by Giulio Cimini at the GROWTHCOM Project Summer School "Socio-Economic Complex Systems"
    2015-09-08

    Title: "Complex Network Reconstruction from Partial Information via Fitness-based ERG modeling"

  • Talk by Giulio Cimini at "XX National Conference of Statistical Physics and Complex Systems"
    2015-06-29

    Title: "Estimating Topological Properties of Weighted Networks from Limited Information"

  • TALK BY GIULIO CIMINI AT CONFERENCE "FISMAT 2015"
    2015-09-22

    Title: "The Scientific Competitiveness of Nations"

  • TALK BY GIULIO CIMINI AT CONFERENCE "IC2S2"
    2015-06-11

    Title: "The Scientific Competitiveness of Nations"

  • TALK BY GIULIO CIMINI AT CONFERENCE "Netsci 2015"
    2015-06-05

    Title: "The Scientific Competitiveness of Nations"

  • Talk by Giulio Cimini at Conference "NetSci-X 2015"
    2015-01-15

    Title: "The scientific competitiveness of nations"

  • Talk by Giulio Cimini at Conference "SEDNAM - SocInfo 2014 International Workshop"
    2014-11-10

    Title: "Reconstructing topological properties of complex networks using the fitness model"

  • Talk by Giulio Cimini at Conference SigmaPhi 2014
    2014-07-07

    Title: "Bootstrapping topological properties of complex economic networks"

  • TALK BY Riccardo DI Clemente: From innovation to diversification: a simple competitive model.
    2015-03-26

    Few attempts have been proposed in order to describe the statistical features and historical evolution of the export bipartite matrix countries/products. An important standpoint is the introduction of a products network, namely a hierarchical forest of products that models the formation and the evolution of commodities. In the present article, we propose a simple dynamical model where countries compete with each other to acquire the ability to produce and export new products. Countries will have two possibilities to expand their export: innovating, i.e. introducing new goods, namely new nodes in the product networks, or copying the productive process of others, i.e. occupying a node already present in the same network. In this way, the topology of the products network and the country-product matrix evolve simultaneously, driven by the countries push toward innovation. 

  • TALK BY Riccardo DI Clemente: Diversification versus specialization in complex ecosystems.
    2015-06-16

    By analyzing the distribution of revenues across the production sectors of quoted firms we suggest a novel dimension that drives the firms diversification process at country level. Data show a non trivial macro regional clustering of the diversification process, which underlines the relevance of geopolitical environments in determining the microscopic dynamics of economic entities. These findings demonstrate the possibility of singling out in complex ecosystems those micro-features that emerge at macro-levels, which could be of particular relevance for decision-makers in selecting the appropriate parameters to be acted upon in order to achieve desirable results. The understanding of this micro-macro information exchange is further deepened through the introduction of a simplified dynamic model. 

  • TALK BY Riccardo DI Clemente: Diversification versus specialization in complex ecosystems.
    2015-09-14

    By analyzing the distribution of revenues across the production sectors of quoted firms we suggest a novel dimension that drives the firms diversification process at country level. Data show a non trivial macro regional clustering of the diversification process, which underlines the relevance of geopolitical environments in determining the microscopic dynamics of economic entities. These findings demonstrate the possibility of singling out in complex ecosystems those micro-features that emerge at macro-levels, which could be of particular relevance for decision-makers in selecting the appropriate parameters to be acted upon in order to achieve desirable results. The understanding of this micro-macro information exchange is further deepened through the introduction of a simplified dynamic model. 

  • TALK BY Riccardo DI Clemente: The build-up of diversity in complex ecosystems.
    2015-10-02

    Diversity is a fundamental feature of ecosystems, even when the concept of ecosystem is ex- tended to sociology or economics. Diversity can be intended as the count of different items, animals, or, more generally, interactions.

    There are two classes of stylized facts that emerge when diversity is taken into account. Di- versity explosions are the first stylized fact: evolutionary radiations in biology, or the process of escaping "Poverty Traps" in economics are two well known examples. The second stylized fact is nestedness: entities with a very diverse set of interactions are the only ones that interact with more specialized ones. In a single sentence: specialists interact with generalists. Nestedness is observed in a variety of bipartite networks of interactions: Biogeographic (Islands-Animals), macroeconomic (countries-products) and mutualistic (e.g. Pollinators-Plants) to name a few. This indicates that entities diversify following a pattern.

    For the fact that they appear in such very different systems, these... Read more

  • TALK BY Riccardo DI Clemente: Randomizing bipartite networks: the case of the World Trade Web.
    2015-09-28

    Within the last fteen years, network theory has been successfully applied both to natural sciences and to socioeconomic disciplines. In particular, bipartite networks have been recognized to provide a particularly insightful representation of many systems, ranging from mutualistic networks in ecology to trade networks in economy, whence the need of a pattern detection-oriented analysis in order

    to identify statistically-signi cant structural properties. Such an analysis rests upon the de nition
    of suitable null models, i.e. upon the choice of the portion of network structure to be preserved while randomizing everything else. However, quite surprisingly, little work has been done so far
    to de ne null models for real bipartite networks. The aim of the present work is to ll this gap, extending a recently-proposed method to randomize monopartite networks to bipartite networks. While the proposed formalism is perfectly general, we apply our method to the binary, undirected, bipartite representation of the World... Read more

  • TALK BY Riccardo Di Clemente: From innovation to diversification: a simple competitive model.
    2015-09-30

    Few attempts have been proposed in order to describe the statistical features and historical evolution of the export bipartite matrix countries/products. An important standpoint is the introduction of a products network, namely a hierarchical forest of products that models the formation and the evolution of commodities. In the present article, we propose a simple dynamical model where countries compete with each other to acquire the ability to produce and export new products. Countries will have two possibilities to expand their export: innovating, i.e. introducing new goods, namely new nodes in the product networks, or copying the productive process of others, i.e. occupying a node already present in the same network. In this way, the topology of the products network and the country-product matrix evolve simultaneously, driven by the countries push toward innovation. 

  • TALK BY Riccardo Di Clemente: Diversification versus specialization in complex ecosystems.
    2015-09-30

    By analyzing the distribution of revenues across the production sectors of quoted firms we suggest a novel dimension that drives the firms diversification process at country level. Data show a non trivial macro regional clustering of the diversification process, which underlines the relevance of geopolitical environments in determining the microscopic dynamics of economic entities. These findings demonstrate the possibility of singling out in complex ecosystems those micro-features that emerge at macro-levels, which could be of particular relevance for decision-makers in selecting the appropriate parameters to be acted upon in order to achieve desirable results. The understanding of this micro-macro information exchange is further deepened through the introduction of a simplified dynamic model. 

  • LIPARI SUMMER SCHOOL: Learning from food webs: Stability and trophic structure of complex dynamical systems
    2015-09-10

    Dr. Samuel Johnson: 09:00 - 10:30

    Abstract:

    Rainforests, coral reefs and other very large ecosystems seem to be the most stable in nature, but this has long been regarded as mathematically paradoxical. How the stability of economic and financial networks depends on their size and structure is still the subject of much debate. I will discuss certain structural features of food webs and other biological networks which have recently been found to enhance the stability of dynamical systems, and in some cases allow stability to increase with size. 

  • LIPARI SUMMER SCHOOL: Typical properties of large random economies
    2015-09-11

    Dr. Matteo Marsili: 09:00 - 10:30

    Abstract:

    Our economies are complex and involve a large number of interdependent actors, such as firms, banks and consumers. An approach to account for systems of this type has been suggested by E.P. Wigner, when he was dealing with spectra of heavy atoms. His intuition was that, the collective properties of large complex systems might be well described by those of random systems with analogous statistics of interactions. We discuss this approach to the study of simple instances of General Equilibrium Theory, a theoretical framework advanced by economists to describe competitive economies. We show that this approach provides a quite rich description of the behaviour of economies and that some quantities exhibit a statistical behaviour that matches the one observed in empirical data. 

  • LIPARI SUMMER SCHOOL: Life at large Reynolds number
    2015-09-09

    Prof. Roberto Benzi : 16:00 - 16:45

    Abstract:

    Organisms often grow, migrate and compete in liquid environments, as well as on solid surfaces. However, relatively little is known about what happens when competing species are mixed and compressed by fluid turbulence. In this talk I review recent work on population dynamics and population genetics in compressible velocity fields of one and two dimensions. By using state of the art numerical simulations, I discuss how external environmental forces (such as turbulence) can dramatically changes the basic features of population dynamics. 

  • LIPARI SUMMER SCHOOL: Is Schumpeter Still a Useful Guiding Light for Global Innovation and Growth Research?
    2015-09-09

    Prof. Gerald Silverberg: 09:00 - 10:30

    Abstract:

    Joseph Schumpeter provided most of the fundamental concepts still used in innovation studies today: radical vs. incremental innovation; clustering of innovations; innovation as recombinant creativity; long waves of economic growth. With the increasing availability of empirical data on the one hand (e.g., patent citation networks; exports disaggregated by product type), and improvements in statistical and complexity analysis on the other (e.g., extreme-value statistics, Poisson regression, network analysis), it is now possible to operationalize and test some of these ideas. In this overview, I will examine to what extent Schumpeter’s original concepts have held up, to what extent they need to be reformulated, and what new hypotheses emerge from an application of modern methods to data sources Schumpeter could only have dreamed about. 

  • LIPARI SUMMER SCHOOL: Temporal Asymmetries in Italian Interbank network reproduced by a data-driven Agent-Based Model
    2015-09-08

    Prof. Vinko Zlatic: 16:00 - 17:30

    Abstract:

    We study the changes in the topology of the structure of the Italian interbank market in the period from January 1st 1999 to September 1st 2009. We find temporal irreversibility in the growth of the largest component of the interbank trading network, a feature not common to any of the usual network growth models. Such asymmetry, (also detected on the growth of the clustering and reciprocity coefficient) reveals that the trading mechanism changes along the day. We are able to recover the statistical properties of the system by means of a simple Agent-Based Model (ABM) where the probability of matching between counter parties depends on a time varying vertex fitness (or attractiveness) describing banks liquidity needs. We show that temporal irreversibility is associated with heterogeneity in the banking system and emerges when the distribution of banks liquidity shocks is broad. 

  • LIPARI SUMMER SCHOOL: Against gravity: network models of international trade
    2015-09-08

    Prof. Diego Garlaschelli: 09:00 - 10:30

    Abstract:

    Jan Tinbergen, the first recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics in 1969, obtained his PhD in physics at the University of Leiden under the supervision of Paul Ehrenfest in 1929. Among many achievements as an economist after his training as a physicist, Tinbergen proposed the so-called Gravity Model of international trade. The model predicts that the intensity of trade between two countries is described by a formula similar to Newton’s law of gravitation, where mass is replaced by Gross Domestic Product. Since Tinbergen’s proposal, the Gravity Model has become the standard model of non-zero trade flows in macroeconomics. However, its intrinsic limitation is the prediction of a completely connected network, which fails to explain the observed intricate topology of international trade. Recent network models overcome this limitation by describing the real network as a member of a maximum-entropy statistical ensemble. The resulting expressions are formally... Read more

  • GROWTHCOM Project Summer School: Socio-Economic Complex Systems
    2015-09-06

    A novel theoretical view is needed to deeply understand economic growth and technological development. The aim of this summer school “ GROWTHCOM Project Summer School: Socio-Economic Complex” is to propose a novel approach empirically grounded on Big Data analysis to unravel the patter of economic development and technological innovation. For this purpose it is necessary to focus on the complex structure of the economy starting from the micro level of technologies, products, capabilities and transactions up to the macro level of country exports.

    During the school we will disentangle the pattern of economic and technological development throughout three different approaches:

    1. Starting from a quantitative, non-monetary metrics for country competitiveness and products complexity, we will introduce a mathematical framework that is able to distinguish countries whose economic fate is predictable, being driven by their economic and industrial complexity, and those which are dominated by other less predictable... Read more

  • Talk by Matúš Medo at the COST Workshop "Quantifying scientific impact: networks, measures, insights?"
    2015-02-13

    Title of the talk: Temporal patterns in information and social systems (slides are available online)

  • GROWTHCOM Summer School: Socio-Economic Complex Systems
    2015-09-06

    GROWTHCOM Summer School

     

    Aims and Scope

    A novel theoretical view is needed to deeply understand economic growth and technological development. The aim of this summer school GROWTHCOM Project Summer School: Socio-Economic Complex” is to propose a novel approach empirically grounded on Big Data analysis to unravel the patter of economic development and technological innovation. For this purpose it is necessary to focus on the complex structure of the economy starting from the micro level of technologies, products, capabilities and transactions up to the macro level of country exports.

    During the school we will disentangle the pattern of economic and technological development throughout three different approaches:

    1. Starting from a quantitative, non-monetary metrics for country competitiveness and products complexity, we... Read more
  • GROWTHCOM Summer School: Socio-Economic Complex Systems
    2015-09-06

    Growthcom Summer School

     

    September 6-12, 2015, Lipari Island (Italy)

     

    Aims and Scope

    A novel theoretical view is needed to deeply understand economic growth and technological development. The aim of this summer school GROWTHCOM Project Summer School: Socio-Economic Complex” is to propose a novel approach empirically grounded on Big Data analysis to unravel the patter of economic development and technological innovation. For this purpose it is necessary to focus on the complex structure of the economy starting from the micro level of technologies, products, capabilities and transactions up to the macro level of country exports.

    During the school we will disentangle the pattern of economic and technological... Read more

  • Paper: “The heterogeneous dynamics of economic complexity”
    2015-02-12

    Our new paper “The heterogeneous dynamics of economic complexity” just out. 

    http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0117174

  • The 2nd workshop of European Union’s GROWTHCOM Project
    2014-05-27

    The second European Union’s GROWTHCOM Seminar was held on May 27-29 at Alibaba business school of Hangzhou Normal University and Alibaba group. The conference is jointly undertaken by the Alibaba business school complex scientific research center of HZNU, the EU Growthcom project team and Alibaba group. The conference participants mainly come from 6 domestic and foreign scientific research teams, respectively is: Italy Rome CNR (Consiglio Nazionle delle Ricerche), the London Mathematical Science Center LIMS (London Centre for Mathematical Sciences), Fribourg University, Hangzhou Normal University, University of Oxford and Alibaba.inc group. The Chairman Zhang Zuo and Vice Dean Zhang Jianlin of Alibaba Business College, Hangzhou Normal University attend the meeting.

    ... Read more

  • Talk for Dr. Riccardo Di Clemente at SigmaPhi2014
    2014-07-08

    Title of the talk: On The Spatial Distribution Of The Italian Primary School-Size, The Italian primary school-size distribution and the city-size: a complex nexus

  • Talk for Dr. Riccardo Di Clemente at SEDPAM at ECCS'14
    2014-09-25

    Title of the talk:  Forecast Drug Abuse: an Agent Based Model, Statistical Agent Based Modelization of The Phenomenon of Drug Abuse 

  • Talk for Dr. Riccardo Di Clemente at ECCS'14
    2014-09-22

    Title of the talk: On The Spatial Distribution Of The Italian Primary School-Size, The Italian primary school-size distribution and the city-size: a complex nexus

  • Third internal GROWTHCOM meeting, Como (September 28-29, 2014)
    2014-09-28

    THIRD MEETING OF GROWTHCOM PROJECT

    Growth and innovation policy-modelling: applying next generation tools, data, and economic complexity ideas”

    Como, September 28th-29th 2014

  • Invited Talk for Dr. Matthieu Cristelli at ECCS'14
    2014-09-26

    Title of the talk: Measuring the Intangible Growth Potential of Countries: Weather-like Forecasting for Economics 

    ECCS'14

     

     

  • ECCS'14 Satellite Meeting "The Complex Brain", IMT - Lucca, September 24
    2014-09-24

    CHAIRMAN: Andrea Gabrielli (GROWTHCOM Member)

    In the last decades an impressive amount of new concepts, usually regrouped under a naively defined field of “complexity”, has been formulated in order  to explain a wide range of phenomena that could not be understood by the usual reductionist approach typical of most of theoretical physics and other “hard” sciences. New branches of theoretical physics and mathematics have been consequently started: multi-scale disordered systems, self-similar critical phenomena, self-organized criticality and complex networks among others, referring to the ensemble of all these fields as “complex systems” science. In spite of the wide diffusion of these new concepts and ideas, well beyond the original field of mathematics and theoretical physics, towards bio-medical, technological and socio-economical applications, a unified and systematic mathematical theory of complex systems is still lacking. In this context, due to its intimate... Read more

  • ECCS'14, Lucca (September 22-26, 2014)
    2014-09-22

    ECCS’14 will be a major international conference and event in the area of complex systems and interdisciplinary science in general. It will offer unique opportunities to study novel scientific approaches in a multitude of application areas.
    The conference will cover a broad range of subjects on all aspects of Complex Systems, as reflected by the following conference tracks:
    Foundations of Complex Systems
    Information and Communication Technologies
    Infrastructures, Planning and Environment
    Biological Complexity
    Language, Linguistics Cognition and Social Systems
    Economics and Finance

    GROWTHCOM FP7 project will be involved with various oral contributions (invited talks and contributed ones) in different sessions

    ON LINE PROGRAM

  • First internal meeting
    2014-05-27

    The first internal meeting of the GROWTHCOM project took place in Hangzhou, China on May 27th-30th at the Alibaba Business School, Hangzhou Normal University (HU). 

  • Kick-off meeting
    2013-11-28

    The kick-off meeting of the GROWTHCOM project took place in London on November 28th-29th 2013 at the London Institute for Mathematical Sciences (LIMS).

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